River flood waters illustrate threats rural areas face in a changing climate.

©STR/Reuters/Corbis

Rural America has already experienced some of the impacts of climate change related weather effects, including crop and livestock loss from severe drought and flooding,⁴ infrastructure damage to levees and roads from extreme storms,⁵ shifts in planting and harvesting times in farming communities,⁶ and large-scale losses from fires and other weather-related disasters.⁷ These impacts have profound effects, often significantly affecting the health and well-being of rural residents as well as their communities, and are amplified by the essential economic link that many of these communities have to their natural resource base.

Rural communities are often characterized by their natural resources and associated economic activity. Dominant economic drivers include agriculture, forestry, mining, energy, outdoor recreation, and tourism. In addition, many rural areas with pleasant climates and appealing landscapes are increasingly reliant on second-home owners and retirees for their tax base and community activities.

Figure 14.3: Growing Season Lengthens Details/Download

Nationally, fewer than 7% of rural workers are directly employed in agriculture, but the nation’s two million farms occupy more than 40% of U.S. land mass – and many rural communities rely extensively on farming and ranching (Ch. 6 Agriculture; Ch. 13 Land Use & Land Cover Change).³ Farmers are responding to climate change by shifting cropping patterns and altering the timing of planting and harvesting. This may result in additional use of herbicides and pesticides with the accompanying human exposure to additional health risks.¹⁹ Changes in rainfall, temperature, and extreme weather events will increase the risk of poor yields and reduced crop profitability. For example, the increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours will accelerate soil erosion rates, increasing deposition of nitrogen and phosphorous into water bodies and diminishing water quality.⁹

Many areas will face increasing competition for water among household, industrial, agricultural, and urban users (Ch. 3: Water).²⁰ Reduced surface water will place more stress on surface water systems as well as groundwater systems (Ch. 3: Water, Key Message 4). In-stream flow requirements for the maintenance of environmental resources are an equally important water demand. While irrigated cropland is an important and growing component of the farm economy,²¹ water withdrawals necessary for generating electricity in thermal power plants are already roughly equal to irrigation withdrawals.²² As climate change increases water scarcity in some regions, there will be increased competition for water between energy production and agriculture.^11,12 Mining also requires large quantities of water, and scarcity resulting from drought associated with climate change may affect operations. Changes in seasonality and intensity of precipitation will increase costs of runoff containment. Climate change impacts on forestry have important implications for timber and forest-amenity-based rural communities. Shifting forest range and composition, as well as increased attacks from pests and diseases, will have negative effects on biodiversity and will increase wildfire risks (Ch. 7: Forests).^8,10 Shifts in the distribution and abundance of many economically important tree species would affect the pulp and wood industry. As ranges shift and the distribution of plant species in forests changes, the range of other forest-dependent animal species will also change, causing additional economic and sociocultural impacts.

Tourism contributes significantly to rural economies. Changes in the length and timing of seasons, temperature, precipitation, and severe weather events can have a direct impact on tourism and recreation activities by influencing visitation patterns and tourism-related economic activity.

Climate change impacts on tourism and recreation will vary significantly by region. For instance, some of Florida’s top tourist attractions, including the Everglades and Florida Keys, are threatened by sea level rise,¹³ with estimated revenue losses of $9 billion by 2025 and $40 billion by the 2050s. The effects of climate change on the tourism industry will not be exclusively negative. In Maine, coastal tourism could increase due to warmer summer months, with more people visiting the state’s beaches.¹⁴ Employing a Tourism Climatic Index (Figure 14.4) that accounts for temperature, precipitation, sunshine, and wind, one study finds that conditions conducive for outdoor recreation will be shifting northward with climate change, though it is unclear whether absolute conditions or relative weather conditions will be more important in influencing future tourist behaviors.¹⁵

Figure 14.4: Climate Change Impacts on Summertime Tourism Details/Download

Climate change will also influence the distribution and composition of plants and animals across the United States. Hunting, fishing, bird watching, and other wildlife-related activities will be affected as habitats shift and relationships among species change.^23,24 Cold-weather recreation and tourism will be adversely affected by climate change. Snow accumulation in the western United States has decreased, and is expected to continue to decrease, as a result of observed and projected warming. Reduced snow accumulation also reduces the amount of spring snowmelt, decreasing warm-season runoff in mid- to high-latitude regions.

Similar changes to snowpack are expected in the Northeast.¹⁷ Adverse impacts on winter sports are projected to be more pronounced in the Northeast and Southwest regions of the United States.⁸ Coastal areas will be adversely affected by sea level rise and increased severity of storms.^14,25,26,27 Changing environmental conditions, such as wetland loss and beach erosion in coastal areas¹⁶ and increased risk of natural hazards such as wildfire, flash flooding, storm surge, river flooding, drought, and extremely high temperatures can alter the character and attraction of rural areas as tourist destinations.

The implications of climate change on communities that are dependent on resource extraction (coal, oil, natural gas, and mining) have not been well studied. Attributes of economic development in these communities, such as cyclical growth, transient workforce, rapid development, pressure on infrastructure, and lack of economic diversification suggest that these communities could face challenges in adapting to climate change.^3,28,29,30

Relatively rapid changes in demographics, economic activity, and climate are particularly challenging in rural communities, where local, agrarian values often run generations deep. Changing rural demographics, influenced by new immigration patterns, fluctuating economic conditions, and evolving community values add to these challenges – especially with regard to climate changes.

Modern rural populations are generally older, less affluent, and less educated than their urban counterparts. Rural areas are characterized by higher unemployment, more dependence on government transfer payments, less diversified economies, and fewer social and economic resources needed for resilience in the face of major changes.^8,34 In particular, the combination of an aging population and poverty increases the vulnerability of rural communities to climate fluctuations.

Figure 14.5: Many Rural Areas are Losing Population

Many Rural Areas are Losing Population

LossGrowth up to U.S. rateGrowth at or above U.S. rate

 

Figure 14.5: Census data show significant population decreases in many rural areas, notably in the Great Plains (white indicates metropolitan areas). Many rural communities’ existing vulnerabilities to climate change, including physical isolation, reduced services like health care, and an aging population, are projected to increase as population decreases. (Figure source: USDA Economic Research Service 2013³⁹).

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There has been a trend away from manufacturing, resource extraction, and farming to amenity-based economic activity in many rural areas of the United States.^35,36,37 Expanding amenity-based economic activities in rural areas include recreation and leisure, e-commuting residents, tourism, and second home and retirement home development. This shift has stressed traditional cultural values³¹ and put pressure on infrastructure³² and natural amenities³³ that draw people to rural areas. Changes in climate and weather are likely to increase these stresses. Rural components of transportation systems are particularly vulnerable to risks from flooding and sea level rise.⁴⁰ Since rural areas often have fewer transportation options and fewer infrastructure redundancies, any disruptions in road, rail, or air transport will deeply affect rural communities.

Power and communication outages resulting from extreme events often take longer to repair in rural areas, contributing to the isolation and vulnerability of elderly residents who may not have cell phones. The lack of cellular coverage in some rural areas can create problems for emergency response during power failures.⁴¹

In some parts of the country there has been a recent trend in Hispanic population growth in rural regions that have not been traditional migrant destinations. New Hispanic immigrants are often highly segregated residentially and isolated from mainstream institutions,⁴² making them more vulnerable to changes in climate. Low wages, unstable work, language barriers, and inadequate housing are critical obstacles to managing climate risk.

Rural communities rely on various transportation modes, both for export and import of critical goods (Ch. 5: Transportation). Climate changes will result in increased erosion and maintenance costs for local road and rail systems, as well as changes in streamflows and predictability that will result in increased maintenance costs for waterways. More frequent disruption of shipping is projected, with serious economic consequences. For example, in 2010, about 40 million tons of cereal grains were shipped by water to Louisiana, while less than 4 million tons traveled by rail.⁵ While rail can help ameliorate small-scale or off-peak capacity limitations on the Mississippi River, it seems unlikely that the rail system can fully replace the river system in the event of a prolonged harvest-time disruption. Events that affect both rail and barge traffic would be particularly damaging to rural communities that depend upon these systems to get commodities to market.

Health and emergency response systems also face additional demands from substantial direct and indirect health risks associated with global climate changes. Indirect risks, particularly those posed by emerging and reemerging infectious diseases, are more difficult to assess, but pose looming threats to economically challenged communities where health services are limited. Direct threats (such as extreme heat, storm events, and coastal and riparian flooding) tend to be more associated with specific local vulnerabilities, so the risks are somewhat easier to assess.⁴³

The socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of rural areas interact with climate change to create health concerns that differ from those of urban and suburban communities. Older populations with lower income and educational levels in rural areas spend a larger proportion of their income on health care than their urban counterparts. Moreover, health care access declines as geographic isolation increases. Overall, rural residents already have higher rates of age-adjusted mortality, disability, and chronic disease than do urban populations.³⁸ These trends are likely to be exacerbated by climate change (Ch. 9: Human Health).

Governments in rural areas are generally ill-prepared to respond quickly and effectively to large-scale events, although individuals and voluntary associations often show significant resilience. Health risks are exacerbated by limitations in the health service systems characteristic of rural areas, including the distance between rural residents and health care providers and the reduced availability of medical specialists.

The effects of climate change on mental health merit special consideration. Rural residents are already at a heightened risk from mental health issues because of the lack of access to mental health providers. The adverse impact of severe weather disasters on mental health is well established,⁴⁴ and there is emerging evidence that climate change in the form of increasing heat waves and droughts has harmful effects on mental health (Ch. 9: Human Health, Key Message 1). Droughts often result in people relocating to seek other employment, causing a loss of home and social networks. Studies have shown that springtime droughts in rural areas cause a decrease in life satisfaction.⁴⁵ The primary care physicians who form the backbone of rural health care often have heavy caseloads and lack specialized training in mental health issues.³⁸ Additionally, patients referred to mental health specialists often experience significant delays.⁴⁶

The frequency and distribution of infectious diseases is also projected to increase with rising temperatures and associated seasonal shifts. Increased rates of mutation and increased resistance to drugs and other treatments are already evident in the behavior of infectious disease-causing bacteria and viruses.⁴⁷ In addition, changes in temperature, surface water, humidity, and precipitation affect the distribution and abundance of disease-carriers and intermediate hosts, and result in larger distributions for many parasites and diseases. Rural residents who spend significant time outdoors have an increased risk of exposure to these disease-carriers, like ticks and mosquitoes (Ch. 9: Human Health).

Climate variability and increases in temperature, extreme events (such as storms, floods, heat waves, and droughts), and sea level rise are expected to have widespread impacts on the provision of services from state, regional, local, and tribal governments. Emergency management, energy use and distribution systems, transportation and infrastructure planning, and public health will all be affected.

Rural governments often depend heavily on volunteers to meet community challenges like fire protection or flood response. In addition, rural communities have limited locally available financial resources to help deal with the effects of climate change. Small community size tends to make services expensive or available only by traveling some distance.

Local governance structures tend to de-emphasize planning capacity, compared to urban areas. While 73% of metropolitan counties have land-use planners, only 29% of rural counties not adjacent to a metropolitan county had one or more planners. Moreover, rural communities are not equipped to deal with major infrastructure expenses.⁴⁸

Communities across the United States are experiencing infrastructure losses, water scarcity, unpredictable water availability, and increased frequency and intensity of wildfires. However, local authorities often do not explicitly associate these observed changes with climate, and responses rarely take climate disruption into account. Even in communities where there is increasing awareness of climate change and interest in comprehensive adaptation planning, lack of funding, human resources, access to information, training, and expertise provide significant barriers for many rural communities.⁶¹

If rural communities are to respond adequately to future climate changes, they will likely need help assessing their risks and vulnerabilities, prioritizing and coordinating projects, funding and allocating financial and human resources, and deploying information-sharing and decision support tools (Ch. 26: Decision Support). There is still little systematic research on the vulnerability of rural communities and there is a need for additional empirical research in this area. Impacts due to climate change will cross community and regional lines, making solutions dependent upon meaningful participation of numerous stakeholders from federal, state, local, and tribal governments, science and academia, the private sector, non-profit organizations, and the general public (Ch. 28: Adaptation, Key Message 3).

Effective adaptation measures are closely tied to specific local conditions and needs and take into account existing social networks.^49,50,51 The economic and social diversity of rural communities affects the ability of both individuals and communities to adapt to climate changes, and underscores the need to assess climate change impacts on a local basis. The quality and availability of natural resources, legacies of past use, and changing industrial needs affect the economic, environmental, and social conditions of rural places and are critical factors to be assessed.^{3,30,52,53,54,55,56,57,58} Successful adaptation to climate change requires balancing immediate needs with long-term development goals, as well as development of local-level capacities to deal with climate change.^50,59,60

Potential national climate change mitigation responses (Ch. 27: Mitigation) – especially those that require extensive use of land, such as permanent reforestation, constructing large solar or wind arrays, hydroelectric generation, and biofuel cropping – are also likely to significantly affect rural communities, with both positive and negative effects.^62,63,64 As with the development of rural resource-intensive economic activities, where national or multi-national companies tend to wield ownership and control, local residents and communities are unlikely to be the primary investors in or beneficiaries of this kind of new economic activity. For example, mitigation policies that affect coal production could have a substantial economic impact on many rural communities, as could policies to promote production of non-fossil-fuel energy such as wind.

Decisions regarding adaptation responses for both urban and rural populations can occur at various scales (federal, state, local, tribal, private sector, and individual) but need to take interdependencies into account. Many decisions that significantly affect rural communities may not be under the control of local governments or rural residents. Given that timing is a critical aspect of adaptation, as well as mitigation, engaging rural residents early in decision processes about investments in public infrastructure, protection of shorelines, changes in insurance provision, or new management initiatives can influence individual behavior and choice in ways that enhance positive outcomes of adaptation and mitigation.

Local Responses to Climate Change in the San Juan Mountains

The San Juan Mountains region straddles the southern edge of the Southern Rocky Mountains and the northeastern tip of the arid Southwest. The high mountain headwaters of the Rio Grande, San Juan, and major tributaries of the Upper Colorado River are critical water towers for five states: Texas, Nevada, California, Arizona, and New Mexico. The diversity of the landforms, high plateaus, steep mountains, deep canyons, and foothills leads to a complex and diverse mix of coniferous and deciduous forested landscapes.⁶⁵ County populations in the area range from 700 to 51,000 people. Population changes between 2000 and 2010 ranged from a 25% decline to an 86% increase. Public lands account for 69% of the land base.⁶⁶ Over half of the local economies are dependent upon natural resources to support tourism, minerals and natural gas extraction, and second home development.

Hiker in the San Juan mountains, Colorado

©Cody Duncan/Aurora Open/Corbis

Average annual temperatures in the San Juan Mountains have risen 1.1ºF in only three decades,⁶⁷ a rate of warming greater than any other region of the United States except Alaska.⁶⁸ The timing of snowmelt has shifted two weeks earlier between 1978 and 2007, and this earlier seasonal release of water resources is of particular concern to all western states.⁶⁹ Current challenges for the region include changes in forests due to pests and diseases, intensive recreation use, fire management for natural and prescribed fires, and increasing development in the wildland-urban interface. Communities are vulnerable to changes from a warmer and drier climate that would affect the frequency and intensity of wildfires, shift vegetation and range of forest types, and increase pressures on water supplies.

In response, the San Juan Climate Initiative drew together stakeholders, including natural resource managers, community planners, elected officials, industry representatives, resource users, citizens, non-profit organizations, and scientists. By combining resources and capabilities, stakeholders have been able to accomplish much more together than if they had worked independently. For example, local governments developed a plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and identify strategies for adaptation, signing the U.S. Mayor’s Climate Protection Agreement in 2009. Climate modelers at University of Colorado and National Center for Atmospheric Research analyzed regional trends in temperature, precipitation, snowpack, and streamflow. Researchers at Mountain Studies Institute, University of Colorado, and Fort Lewis College are partnering with San Juan National Forest to monitor alpine plant communities and changes in climate across the region, and to document carbon resources. San Juan National Forest is developing strategies for adapting to climate changes in the region related to drought, wildfire, and other potential effects. La Plata County is leading an effort to plan for sustainable transportation and food networks that will be less dependent upon carbon-based fuels, while the Mountain Studies Institute is leading citizen science programs to monitor changes to sensitive species like the American pika.